Private Equity & Media/Entertainment: Opportunities in Every Cycle

September 28, 2025 | 5 minute read

The media and entertainment (M&E) industry is in the midst of what can best be described as a consolidation window—a phase where market volatility, competitive pressures, and technological disruption are pushing players toward scale, rationalization, and strategic recombination. For private equity firms, this presents both risk and reward. While in such a dynamic environment, the right finance leadership can make the difference between value preservation and value creation.

Below, key trends in PE-backed M&E investing are explored and benchmarked where we stand today, and a view on what 2026–2027 may bring. The intention is to help prospective PE sponsors and portfolio companies see how deep finance & transformation leadership becomes a true competitive differentiator.

Market Backdrop: Fewer Deals, Bigger Bets

Declining Volume, Rising Value

A prominent trend across M&A and PE is a decline in transaction count but increased focus on larger, high-conviction deals:

• In H1 2025, global media M&A deal count dropped ~14% (from 631 to 541) while disclosed deal value jumped from ~$12.3B to ~$60.0B, largely due to mega-deals. (BDO UK)

• In the broader private equity space, H1 2025 saw deal value rise ~19% year-over-year to $386B, while deal count declined ~6% to ~6,188 transactions. (S&P Global)

• Across global PE, public-to-private transactions swelled: in 2024, PE-backed take-private deals reached ~$149.9B, up 32% from prior year levels. (S&P Global)

  
  

These shifts suggest that capital is converging on fewer but more strategic platforms, and that sponsors are being more selective about where they deploy.

Sector Focus & TMT Tailwinds

Media and entertainment remain part of the “TMT” (Technology, Media, Telecom) axis, often riding broader tech-led tailwinds. Some structural dynamics at play:

• In 2024, TMT deals (approx. 1,460 deals totaling ~$698B) accounted for a large share of deal volume and value, with the media and telecom segments commanding higher average transaction sizes. (McKinsey & Company)

• PwC notes that in 2025, TMT volumes dropped ~11% while values increased ~20%, driven by a handful of outsized deals. (PwC)

• Within media & entertainment specifically, digitization, streaming, content fragmentation, and AI-enabled production/monetization models are re-shaping the opportunity set. (PwC)

  
  

At the same time, private equity investors are shifting toward operational value creation, not just financial engineering. Firms are building operating teams and pushing for active transformation in portfolio companies. (PwC)

Why Now is a Moment for Consolidation & Strategic Transformation

The elements driving consolidation in M&E are amplifying:

• Margin pressure on legacy models — Traditional ad-driven and linear TV revenues are under intense pressure from streaming, digital ad competition, and shifts in viewer behavior.

• Economies of scale in content and distribution — Scale enables leverage over content costs, distribution deals, technology stacks, and cross-platform monetization.

• Technology / AI as force multipliers — Data science, AI-driven insights (user segmentation, personalization, predictive consumption), and automation are becoming core to content budgeting, marketing ROI, and pricing optimization.

• Regulatory and capital constraints — PE sponsors and media firms must navigate regulatory scrutiny in M&A while sourcing or refinancing capital under tighter conditions.

• Fragmented ownership opportunity set — Many midsize media firms, streaming platforms, niche studios, or digital-media assets are underperforming or under-optimized—prime turn-around targets.

One example: the merger of Skydance Media and Paramount Global (value ~$8B) created a combined scale entity intended to compete more robustly across streaming, content, and distribution. (Wikipedia)

In short, consolidation isn’t just happening—it’s necessary for many players to survive the next chapter.

How a Strategic Finance Leader Adds Value — Especially in Consolidation

In times of consolidation or scale play, the difference between a successful deal and a value trap often lies in execution, not just deal-making. Below are key value levers where strong CFO / strategic finance leadership makes a material difference:

Value Lever	How a Strategic CFO / FP&A Leader Contributes
Pre‑deal diligence & scenario modeling	Stress test revenue, cost, synergy assumptions; build sensitivity analyses; validate integration costs and risks
Integration / carve-out execution	Lead financial, operational, systems integration (or separation) with clear milestones, aligning legacy and new entities
FP&A modernization & decision support	Build real-time dashboards, rolling forecasts, AI-driven insights; evolve forecasting cadence and scenario planning
Commercial & monetization strategy	Partner with product, marketing, content teams to test pricing elasticity, bundling, subscription/ad models
Capital & working capital optimization	Manage leverage, refinancing risks, asset monetization, cash flow discipline, covenant management
Investor & board communication	Translate complex metrics into crisp narratives for LPs, boards, and sponsors; lead investor roadshows and reporting
Talent & culture alignment	Shape the transformational finance team, set KPIs and performance systems, and lead change management initiatives

Importantly, these levers are not just add-ons — they become core to defensibility, exit viability, and long-term margin expansion. In consolidation or distressed cycles, that edge often determines whether a platform becomes a PE trophy or a write-down.

Outlook: 2026–2027 & Key Market Risks

Forward Projections

Given current trajectories, here’s how I see 2026–2027 shaping up in PE-backed media & entertainment:

• Moderate rebound in volume, selective mega deals — As interest rates stabilize and capital markets normalize, we could see a rebound in deal volume (especially in the $100M–$500M band), but continued dominance by megadeals (>$1B) in sector-defining plays.

• Rerating of streaming / content platforms — Several mid-tier streaming services and content studios may come under pressure, opening arbitrage opportunities (consolidation, rationalization, roll-ups).

• Greater carve-outs and spin‑offs — Rather than full acquisitions, PE firms may target non-core assets in larger media conglomerates, or acquire divisions being divested.

• Rise of hybrid structures — More minority‑stake growth investments, GP-led secondaries, or structured equity deals with incentive alignment.

• AI / tech-led value creation as a must-have — CFOs who understand how to embed advanced analytics, automation, and AI into content, marketing, monetization, and cost control will be in especially high demand.

  
  

Risks to Watch

1. Macro / interest rate volatility — If interest rates rise or credit conditions worsen, leverage-heavy deals will struggle.

2. Regulatory scrutiny — Media consolidation carries antitrust risk, content regulation, and cross-border oversight.

3. Valuation dislocations — Expect gaps between seller and buyer expectations, especially in creative or niche assets without clear data-driven metrics.

4. Execution risk — Poor integrations, cultural mismatch, system incompatibilities, or underestimating legacy liabilities can derail value.

5. Technology / disruption risk — New models (e.g. AI-native content, creator-first platforms) might render legacy strategies obsolete faster than expected.

Conclusion

Private equity’s role in shaping the future of media and entertainment is only growing—especially in a time of consolidation, platform rationalization, and digital disruption. While deal volume may fluctuate, value creation opportunities persist for firms with the right operational leaders in place.

If your firm or a portfolio company is navigating growth, transformation, or integration, I’d welcome a conversation about how I can help drive strategic finance outcomes as a CFO or senior finance partner.

Feel free to reach out directly at justin@jacfo.net or visit jacfo.net to connect.

© 2025 Justin Abdollahi